How to read evidence
Evidence state: 2026-07-16.
Canonical numbers: NUMBERS_CANON.html
Prefer seals + public data/*.csv (see data/README.html).
Resolution order (when docs conflict)
| Priority | Source | Trust for |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sealed Jul 15–16 claim-stack: MULTI_SEED_CLAIM.md, SEED*_SUMMARY.md, F1_BCAROL_SUMMARY.md (F1_Claim-W2), results/f1_seal/SUMMARY.md | Current claim status and headline numbers |
| 2 | Public data/*.csv at https://nocap.think2earn.com/data/ (+ data/README.html) | Independent recompute from same-origin downloads |
| 3 | Pulled CSVs under results/claim_stack_v1/seed2029/, seed4242/, results/f1_seal/log.csv | Full-tree audit when those files are available |
| 4 | Public site + this folder’s narrative markdown | Presentation; may lag seals |
| 5 | docs/ops/FAIR_CLOCK.md, older ledgers, component STACK.md | History / policy origin — may be partially stale |
| 6 | nocap-repo/README.md dated ~2026-07-12 (“no win”) | Stale for claim status — pointer only |
Rule: newer sealed SUMMARY beats older README / early same-account-only fair-clock wording for what is currently claimed.
What is sealed truth (start here)
Headline claim
| File | Role |
|---|---|
nocap-repo/results/claim_stack_v1/MULTI_SEED_CLAIM.md | 3/3 table + defensible language |
…/SEED1337_SUMMARY.md | Seed 1337 matched pair |
…/SEED2029_SUMMARY.md | Seed 2029 matched pair |
…/SEED4242_SUMMARY.md | Seed 4242 candidate-only + 80→40GB note |
…/PREREG.md | Recipe freeze |
Denominators
| File | Role |
|---|---|
nocap-repo/results/f1_seal/SUMMARY.md | Public F1_seal (T=3.866 h) |
nocap-repo/results/f1_seal/log.csv | First-cross row audit |
nocap-repo/results/claim_stack_v1/F1_BCAROL_SUMMARY.md | F1_Claim-W2 (T=3.858 h) |
Public CSVs (start here for recompute)
| URL / path | Notes |
|---|---|
data/f1_seal.csv | F1_seal denominator |
data/s2029_cand.csv | Candidate 2029 |
data/s2029_stock.csv | Stock 2029 (no cross) |
data/s4242_cand.csv | Candidate 4242 |
data/f1_claim_w2.csv | F1_Claim-W2 cross-check |
| Seed 1337 | No public CSV — sealed SUMMARY hours only |
Catalog + formula: data/README.html. The live Verify section chart uses these same files.
Repo CSV pulls (when present)
| Path | Notes |
|---|---|
…/claim_stack_v1/seed2029/cand_log.csv | Candidate 2029 |
…/claim_stack_v1/seed2029/stock_log.csv | Stock 2029 (no cross) |
…/claim_stack_v1/seed4242/cand_log.csv | Candidate 4242 |
| Seed 1337 CSVs | Often absent locally — use sealed SUMMARY hours until pulled |
Full path index: EVIDENCE_PATHS.html.
Recompute first-cross from CSV
- Open
log.csv(orcand_log.csv/stock_log.csv). - Find columns
val_disjoint(or equivalent) andtrain_time_ms. - Select the first row with
val_disjoint ≤ 3.3821. - T_h = train_time_ms / 3.6×10^6.
- ΔT% = 100 × (3.866 - T_h) / 3.866.
- Round for publication the same way seals do (examples below).
Known recomputes (do not invent others)
| Run | First-cross ms | T_h precise | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1_seal | 13,918,667.5 | 3.866297… | 3.866 h |
| Cand 2029 | 12,840,827.6 | 3.566897 | 3.567 h · +7.7% |
| Cand 4242 | 12,640,470.5 | 3.511242 | 3.511 h · +9.2% |
| Cand 1337 | (SUMMARY) | — | 3.553 h · +8.1% |
| F1_Claim-W2 | 13,889,386.9 | 3.858163… | 3.858 h |
If stock has no row ≤ 3.3821 through final step → first-cross = NONE → matched ΔT% = N/A.
Chronology traps (not current truth)
| Trap | Correct reading |
|---|---|
| README “official speedup: still no win” (Jul 12) | Superseded by Jul 15–16 3/3 seals; still true that public % is vs F1_seal only; matched cand-vs-stock ΔT% = N/A. |
| Docs saying “2/2 seeds sealed” | Written before seed 4242; current = 3/3. |
| “2 / 2 no cross” in failure ledger | Means two paired stock arms missed — not “2/2 candidates.” |
STACK.md “not an under-baseline claim” | True for 2026-07-14 component bank; full seals landed later. |
| Early FAIR_CLOCK “cardinal % only on Clock-W” | Policy origin; sealed campaign publishes vs F1_seal while candidates ran on Claim-W1/W2, with F1_Claim-W2 as cross-check. Task hard rules + MULTI_SEED_CLAIM.md win. |
| Mean 3.560 h / 7.9% | Old 2-seed mean; current mean ≈ 3.544 h / +8.3%. |
Residual conflict list: ACCURACY_NOTES.html.
Explicit non-claims (audit checklist)
- ☐ Public % vs F1_seal only; matched cand-vs-stock ΔT% = N/A
- ☐ No matched first-cross ΔT% vs joint stock as a number
- ☐ No % vs historical F1 (~229.1 min)
- ☐ Candidate vs F1_seal, not vs joint stock, for headline %
- ☐ Seed 4242 noted as candidate-only / 40GB seal
Live site
Recompute from https://nocap.think2earn.com/data/ using the same CSVs linked from the Verify section.